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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.