Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
